The NWS Science and Technology Integration-Modeling Program Office is coordinating with partners to establish a UFS Webinar Series. The goal of these webinars is to share advancements in science and technology in all aspects of the UFS, in both research and operational settings. We welcome speakers from NOAA and other collaborating organizations. Speakers can be recommended using the Speaker Recommendation Form.
The webinars are tentatively held monthly at 3pm EST every second Thursday, and registration is required to participate
Subscribe to announcements of upcoming Webinars here.
(Left) WoFS 90th percentile of maximum surface wind accurately forecast the swath where severe winds were observed (blue boxes) at 1–4 hour lead time during a derecho on 12 May 2022.
(Upper right) A WoFS scientist sits with a National Weather Service forecaster to aid interpretation and discuss operational utility during an experimental real-time WoFS run.
User engagement and an R2O/O2R loop are key to WoFS’ success.
When: Thursday June 8th, 2023
Topic: The Warn-on-Forecast System: Probabilistic Prediction of Individual Thunderstorms
Presenter: Patrick Burke
Abstract: The vision of Warn-on-Forecast is to enable extended lead time for individual local severe weather hazards through design of new storm-scale probabilistic tools. Namely, the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) employs rapid data assimilation, rapid forecast updates, and visualization of output at 5-minute resolution to provide movie-like probabilistic forecasts of individual storms on the 0-6 hour, “watch-to-warning” scale. Operating a relocatable, 900-km squared regional domain since 2017, the experimental 3-km WoFS has been shown to improve forecasts in testbed environments and to influence real-world decision-making and public threat communication at NWS national and local offices. WoFS migrated to the Microsoft Azure cloud in 2022, unlocking the capability to run multiple domains and/or larger domains. The NSSL double moment microphysics scheme designed in the WoF group is now available in the UFS, and WoFS is slated for an operational transition to the NWS, as part of the UFS, by late decade. Developing tools and processes within the UFS to support 5-15 minute data assimilation cycles, 30-minute relaunch cadence, and low-latency generation of unique ensemble visualizations will pave the way for future applications on a multitude of small-scale analysis and forecast problems.